Election 2012 - Obama vs Romney and Beyond
© 2012 Curtis Manwaring
Some have already made statements on who will win the next election, but I have not done so because I had a lot of reservations about Obama's chart (I am not a birther who doubts his birth certificate). Sonja Foxe invited me to do a talk at the SOTA conference in Buffalo, NY last fall about Obama using the Hellenistic methods and I declined after explaining to her that his chart is not exactly an easy textbook example of Hellenistic technique because many of the "cookbook rules" of what to expect seemingly had to be violated in order to make the chart fit the natives life; so I was not fully satisfied that I had the right birth time and decided not to use it for anything until I understood what was wrong. I also happen to be one of Obama's astro twins, having been born 11 hours and 29 minutes later in UTC in 1961 assuming his birth certificate is correct.
But before I get into Obama's and eventually Romney's charts, I want to back up to a time when Clinton was in office to see the overall patterns that have led up to the present. I recently saw a PBS documentary called "Money, Power and Wall Street". In it there was a lot of useful information that was not available at the time biographically about Obama and how he handled the financial crisis of 2008 during his campaign for president. It was stated that McCain suspended his presidential campaign (presumably just prior to Sept 25th, 2008) to call a general meeting in Washington, D.C. to address the problem that financial institutions were having with synthetic CDO's (Collateralized Debt Obligations). They are an invention in the early 1980's by the J.P Morgan financial team that were a solution to the problem of risk management. Basically the way it works is that by selling the risk of your mortgages, one distributes their risk amongst several financial entities. The incentive for buying is the huge financial payback (often 10 times the return on a stock market investment). Most of these derivatives are sold between banks and regulations did not require full disclosure of how much risk banks were accumulating. One can also buy on margin and only pay 10% down so with $100 one can own $1000 worth of stock / CDO's, etc. The problem is that many banks did this (selling CDO's to each other and taking up each others risk) creating a "bubble" of imaginary wealth that was only good as long as there was not a "run" to collect. A full explanation of this is beyond the scope of this article, but I bring it up to highlight what I had said about George Bush, Jr and Bill Clinton's chart a few years ago: that the place of acquisition in the presidents chart shows what can be said about the nations economy during their reign in the broadest sense. It sums up the state of the nations economic health.
So how does one find the place of acquisition? First find the lot (or part) of fortune. Starting from the sign counting as one, count to the 11th sign. This is always the sign in superior sextile to where fortune is located. So if fortune is in Aquarius, then Sagittarius is the place of acquisition, if Scorpio has fortune, then Virgo is the acquisitive place, etc... I think it highly likely that Bill Clinton's fortune is in Cancer in the whole sign 10th. Just a sneeze after his birth time takes it from Gemini where it is showing into Cancer (because the Moon has width, one might argue that fortune has a width of 1/2 degree even though convention is to use the center of the body. This can cause the Sun or Moon to be in 2 signs at the same time). There are many reasons why I think this, but the main one is that the USA experienced unprecedented prosperity during the Clinton era and it clearly shows in Clinton's chart (below).
What fortune in Cancer does is make Taurus the acquisitive place. Valens says that the 11th is indicative of how one makes ones money and it is also indicative of what level of financial success one has. Clinton has the Moon in Taurus in exaltation in the acquisition. If we think not in terms of Clinton personally and see the chart as a harbinger of things to come for the nation as a whole, we see an exalted Taurus Moon in the acquisitive place very nicely explaining the bulls on wall street (literally) during his era. Toward's the end of his presidency, trouble was starting to show up in the tech bubble (Virgo) which was about to burst (Mars). At this point, Bush was considering a run for office and he had just run into his 10th from fortune period (the most favorable possible for eminence and fame) in 1998. But in contrast to Clinton, Bush 43 has almost the opposite going on with his place of acquisition. Fortune was in Scorpio which means that Virgo was the place of acquisition with Mars the lord of fortune present. Valens had this to say about the "star of Ares" (Mars) in the place of acquisition:
"Ares takes away the things which are given or additional acquisitions by producing diminishment, robberies, fires, trials, those who are wasteful in regard to the public or royal affairs, or those who are dismissed and accused in regard to them. This is so unless the nativity should happen to be military or estimable; for then from such a starting point of violent and dangerous actions and of theft, they will come into acquisition, if indeed the star should happen to be properly [situated], except that it will also effect something terrible and bring diminishment." 
Now if we take the broader perspective of what Bush's chart means for the nation, because Mars is in the place of acquisition (Schmidt says that Mars wants more than his due), it shows a "cooking of the books" with failed companies such as Enron, Worldcom, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, etc... and making money through wars and selling arms. It also nicely symbolizes financial risk by being placed in Bush's 2nd house. I don't place much credit on Clinton for creating the prosperity of his era and I don't entirely blame Bush for the economic collapse of 2008. These are just two not very important people when contrasted with the whole world of people who have actually had greater impact on the economy such as those who were responsible for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. I am thinking of their charts as an "apotelesma" (outcome) of a long process that started with special interests and the motivations of many people.
Given that the USA went from a time with Moon in Taurus prosperity in the 90's to a Mars in Virgo "cooking of the books" by the first decade of this century, it is not surprising that we have another president who reflects Bush's chart with Mars in Virgo. Bush's Virgo Mars was in the 2nd and Obama's in the 8th which suggests that there was a reversal about to happen (their ascendants are opposed indicating that the helm of life reversed course). It is not entirely surprising since practically everyone knew that the expenses of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars would eventually bankrupt the USA if left unchecked.
Now it is often the case that when it comes to actions, it takes time to build up a career so the longer that a favorable period lasts, the greater the success (particularly with Saturn which is naturally slow). When the general times are lengthy and angular (especially when angular counting from fortune) and the winds of the planets are like minded, a far reaching destination can be attained. Valens says that this depends upon the support of the nativity what level of success is promised and this comes down to assessing the trigon lords of the sect light to see if they are in angles and well placed or not. But when sub periods constantly change the direction of the wind, one often has to back track or tack one's way to where one plans to go. So normally one might not expect prominence right at the beginning of such an eminent period, but I was still bothered that there was a bit too much fudge factor given the existence of contrary cases. If spirit was in Sagittarius, at age 12  he should have come into prominence in some way when the lot of exaltation lord was reached in his own domicile in the 10th from fortune (as Valens says book 4, pg 14, first paragraph, Schmidt translation).
There were two glaring inconsistencies: one was that the most important time within a general period is when the sub period contains the domicile lord of the general period (Robert Schmidt calls this the encounter of the domicile (or exaltation) lord); the second was that the subsequent period (Aquarius) has an activated Jupiter that is potentially maltreated when Obama becomes president. There are instances of child stars who become famous at a young age or find themselves in the spotlight by accident, yet no such occurance with Obama. Then he reaches the presidency of the USA in 2008 and he is 8 years past his 27 year Capricorn 10th from fortune period.  I rationalized that maybe the fact that Aquarius was angular with Jupiter present and the fact that Saturn was still activated as the main time lord was the reason. But this is probably wrong as I have found a much more consistent reason that does not violate the fact that the Aquarius period has an active Jupiter that is maltreated (by its lord, Saturn in the 12th and contrary to the sect in favor). In fact this would very nicely explain the circumstance of fortune (the nations economy), that it had started to be maltreated in 2000 when it was activated in Obama's chart. This suggests that he was in step with what heimarmene (fate) allowed as possible and set him in a pool of potential candidates to be set up in the future. It is as if there is some "secret chart" that sorts out the destinies of each soul and selects those most in line with the zeitgeist of the times. There is precedence for this idea from Valens where he says that one must look to the heliacal rising of Sirius for the lord of the year. 
Valens makes several statements about the nature of fortune and spirit and how they play off each other; that masculine nativities usually draw down releasings from spirit and feminine nativities from fortune... but that it is possible that in some cases ones actions are derived from bodily motion through the use of hands or contests.  In diurnal charts there is less ambiguity, but with nocturnal charts, especially when the Moon is below the horizon, Schmidt says that one ought to use the diurnal formula.  I decided to reverse the calculation of fortune to the day formula because the nocturnal formula caused fortune and its lord to fall amiss (fortune in 3rd with Mars in 8th in aversion). Valens says:
"Often then, when the lot of fortune or its lord falls amiss, the lot of spirit divides both bodily matters and those that pertain to action." 
This realization was for me when the chart of Obama finally became illuminated and I could finally render it intelligible and had confidence that the birth time is correct. If then one reverses spirit and fortune from their usual calculations, then fortune goes to Sagittarius and Spirit might go to Aries (using Valens statement to reverse when the Moon is below the horizon, not the statement above). When I did this, I noticed that the domicile lord of spirit (Aries/Mars) falls in the 10th from fortune which is Virgo. This is an eminence indicator and was the same thing that got Bush 43 into office (lord of spirit in 10th from fortune became activated in the releasing of spirit). When I cross checked this with the zodiacal releasing from spirit, viola, he reaches his 10th from fortune (Virgo) when he becomes president of the US (this also nicely explains the banking crisis and his main preoccupation of not wanting to inherit a bankrupt nation since his Mars in Virgo was activated dealing with the Bush era fallout). Not only that, he was in the same period when he became president of the Harvard Law review February 27, 1990 which was also a Virgo period on 2 levels. The chart started making sense. Before this, I had been making the assumption that fortune was in Aries which would make Capricorn the fortune 10th.
So I started looking for further confirmation... Everyone knows that what really put Obama in the national spotlight was his speech at the democratic convention on July 27th, 2004. I checked the zodiacal releasing from the lot of spirit and found:
This is a direct hit to the day on the 3rd level and is the encounter of fortune in the 11th which very nicely explains his actions as speaker at a convention (11th house). The Moon was transiting fortune at the time (lord of the general times) and Jupiter lord of the 3rd level and exaltation lord of the general times was found transiting the 10th from fortune in Virgo which sufficiently intensified the times.
Now back to the financial crisis of 2008... A PBS special on the financial meltdown of Wall Street stated that Bear Stearns was bailed out in spring 2008 by Tim Geithner and later Hank Paulson let Lehman fail and stock took a nose dive which culminated in an important meeting where Obama was said to shine through as a true leader and McCain was said to be "fumbling with cue cards". That program attributes that as the main turning point in Obama’s campaign and said that McCain never recovered after that. I contrasted this with Obama’s chart for a statement that was made in the program where McCain suspended his campaign and called for a meeting in DC (Obama included) where everyone would work on the problem. The meeting was on Sept 25, 2008:
This falls on the day after Obama’s Cancer L3 period and election night is the encounter of the domicile lord (Moon in Gemini)! This is during his 10th from fortune period Cn –> Vi Aug 4, 2007 where he remains during the whole campaign through the first part of his presidency. What might make the Cn –> Vi period especially powerful is that the domicile lords are in the same relation in the nativity that they have to their rulers (what medieval astrologers call "being in proper face" or almugaea). There is a fair amount of "proper face" in Obama’s chart (Saturn/Jupiter, Jupiter/Venus, Moon/Jupiter, Moon/Saturn, Saturn/Mercury, Sun/Saturn, Mercury/Moon all have this relationship). Valens states:
"And just as each of the stars is written upon the circle zodiacally in accordance with its domiciles, when it is figured in like manner in a nativity, it will also become sympathetic to another." 
The agreement to bail out the banks was signed on Oct 3, 2008. Note that the period mirrors the first two levels on that date (Cancer - Virgo). This is what Ellen Black calls "amplification" (Robert Schmidt's wife). Notice that the focus of the whole period comes when the Cancer period encounters the Moon in Gemini on Nov 3rd, 2008 (election day was during this short period). It illustrates nicely the idea that the most important or "tense" time in a general period comes when the domicile or exaltation lord is encountered. 
Contrasting Obama's chart now to Clinton and Bush 43's places of acquisition, fortune in Sagittarius places the acquisitive place in Libra with Venus as lord. It is interesting that Pluto happened to be transiting directly opposite Venus (she acts as lord of acquisition) during the time Obama was asking Tim Geithner to fix this mess. Geithner decides to "stress test" the banks involved in the bailout. The old guard (Saturn) is sitting in Obama's 10th from fortune under Virgo scrutiny and just as Saturn enters Libra, the same day Obama signs the Wall Street Reform Act into law. The time lord listing shown below:
At the time, Mars is fully engaged as a time lord and Mars was within 2 degrees of a return to its natal position in Obama's chart in the fortune 10th. The old guard had been "cleaned up" with Saturn just entering Libra and people were starting to get really angry. The Moon was in her fall by transit at the start of the period and in Sagittarius conjunct fortune around the time of the signing. The Tea Party was the result of the growing anger over the bank bailouts back in 2008, but most of the members were closet republicans and fell in line with establishment when Palin et al co-opted the movement.
What can we say about the next election then? Traditionally, astrologers find who has the most favorable transits, progressions, etc and from the preponderance of the testimony declare the winner. This approach has a lot of problems. First and most obvious is that maybe being elected to office will be the worst thing that happens to the candidate. Also there are many factors, some not so positive, that are the result of winning. Obama lost the use of his Blackberry due to security reasons and many feel the loss of freedom and privacy during and after a successful campaign. It is often a highly stressful time, so the charts should reflect this. Sometimes the one with the most favorable transits loses and quite appropriately the chart shows a lack of stress. However, it is probably reasonable to expect it to be more likely than not that the good outweighs the bad given ordinary circumstances to those who achieve success in public office or those who seek to attain it.
Another approach is to find the candidate with the most support in the nativity (eminence). This too has some problems, but it is more likely that a sitting president will have an eminent chart than not. Here the problem is that usually both candidates who end up selected are highly eminent, which qualifies them both for the job; hence there is no way to be able to tell which one. Selecting the more eminent chart is not necessarily going to select the right candidate. We can generally assume if the candidates are running for president and successful in party nomination that they are eminent.
So what might be an indicator of who would win the election? An election (or contest) is a mercurial matter and it is interesting as Patrick Watson points out that Mercury stations retrograde on election day. He could be right that this could indicate a similar snafu that ties up the election for a while in a way similar to the Gore vs Bush election in 2000. (As for the analysis, what Watson/Brennan use is what I'm calling fortune here, but they're using it as the lot of spirit which is an important subtle distinction. I think that analysis is still useful, but I would not think of it in terms of his actions, but in terms of what befell him. For example, it's hard to imagine that Obama asked for or intended Oprah's endorsement, the Tina Fei incident, nor being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize - those are strokes of tuche/luck that befall an individual unintended). However, it is possible that fortune and spirit can switch in a chart such as Obama's at various periods in life (Schmidt gives an example of this in his zodiacal releasing workshop with the chart of George Foreman).
I think that one has to judge where the general times are heading and see which candidate's chart fits that time description the best in terms of the times he/she is going into. We saw that Obama's Virgo Mars in F10 was active during his campaign for president and in fact he was already acting like the president during this crisis. This is where the heliacal rising of Sirius would have shown the prevailing winds of change that could be matched to a candidate's chart. This was fitting for the ancient world because much was built upon that cycle of renewal, but it probably isn't going to be that telling in the modern era (assuming that the reason was not because Sirius was the brightest non-wandering star in the sky). The question is what do we have that is a strong political force of renewal? These days, astrologers use cardinal ingress charts for places like Washington, DC to examine the issues of the time. Another technique might be to compare the inauguration date and election date to see if there is sympathy between the periods in each nativity. The problem here is that for a sitting president, the 2nd term is not as significant a turning point compared to one who is about to take the oath of office for the first time. So this is risky as well.
One of the most important configurations that will shape the years to come is the Uranus / Pluto cardinal square. The last time these two were active was in the mid-late 60s with the conjunction in Virgo. Obama has Saturn and Venus in cardinal signs whereas Romney has Neptune in Libra. There is slightly more engagement with the Uranus Pluto square coming from Obama's chart. More importantly, the Uranus Pluto square symbolizes the overthrow of the leadership and rebellion against autocracy. Obama's chart has an obvious indicator of this; the Sun in Leo setting which symbolizes death of the king or leadership. Does Romney have anything similar to this? Well, in a different way Romney has the nobility (Jupiter) ruling the place of acquisition with the south node (symbolizing loss) and being met by a fallen Moon (angry public) in the 7th. It seems both have indications that could be interpreted for a collapse of the throne, which could mean an inevitability of collapse. Lets bypass this issue for now and examine Romney's chart more carefully.
As to the chart support for Romney, we already know we are dealing with an eminent individual, so we would expect the chart to show it. I'm very tempted to rectify his time to be 4 minutes later because two things happen: the lords of the lot of exaltation are both found in the 10th from fortune (if Exaltation falls in Cancer with Moon/Jupiter as lords - this is one of Valens' eminence indicators and shows that Cancer -> Scorpio handing over are times of great advancement). Also this tightens up the conjunction of Venus, Fortune and the MC to the degree! Romney's Scorpio periods should be favorable for advancement although maybe somewhat tumultous due to rulership by a contrary to sect Mars (this should be mitigated somewhat being placed in the watery trigon). His trigon lords are Venus, then Mars with the Moon assisting. The first trigon lord falls cadent strictly speaking, but because it is conjunct the MC and fortune nearly to the degree, it is pivotal according to one of the definitions of the word "kentron".  I suspect that Venus so closely conjunct the lot of fortune also places it in a "center of activity" as well which would be the first definition of "kentron". Valens says that when the lots of fortune, spirit, eros or necessity fall in a sign, that it makes the place more "chrematistikos" (meaning busy or telling). If it was not for this, Valens would say that after a time of relative difficulty, one comes into good fortune and high rank (usually when the times of the weaker time lord becomes spent through the ascensions of the zoidia they occupy and possibly including (adding) the circular period of the star (Venus)). But Romney's greatest difficulty appears to be suffering as a Mormon missionary in France in the mid 60's trying to convert French wine drinkers to Mormonism (I find this very humorous). What is striking to me about this period in his life is that he was so adverse to the counter-culture movement of the 60's, sporting a clean cut appearance, voicing support for the Vietnam war and even debating it against hostile French citizens who had just bailed out of Vietnam. He was definitely as about as out of step with the times as one could possibly be. He was finishing up a Virgo major period (having loosed the bond to Pisces and encountered the domicile/exaltation lord there) at the time which contains his contrary to sect Mars and fallen Mercury retrograde (although the 30 months of his mission work spans several sub periods into Libra).
To some degree, Romney's chart has similar complication to Obama's in that Romney has already reached his 10th from fortune period. The difference is that while Obama was a relative nobody in the early 70's, Romney, when spirit went into the fortune 10th, became a hugely successful business man. In the period leading up to this he had done very well in school having received university honors in 1971. 
This was a loosing of the bond from Capricorn to Cancer on the 2nd level with Libra having the general times. The domicile lord of the general times, Venus is in the topical 9th house which has to do with education, and Libra itself is the fortune 9th. Schmidt has said that one of the delineations for Venus is "piety" and "cleanliness" and the "observance of religious ritual". This fits the description well for Brigham Young University which is not a secular college and it is sitting on the point of "praxis" (the MC) which represents actions. Later in 1975 he graduated cum laude from Harvard Business and Law School and was awarded "Baker Scholar" for graduating at the top 5% of that class. He was at this point just entering his 15 year major period of Scorpio which is his fortune 10th.
Normally the releasing of spirit to the fortune 10th is the highest peak one can have in life and usually what one does during such a period shows what one is most known for. This occurred 1974 - 1989 during his Scorpio period. If he becomes president, this will break that rule. However he also became governor of Massachusetts in 2003 well past this period so I don't think that this is an unbreakable rule. What is more puzzling is that Romney was in a Capricorn major period when reaching this position (which shouldn't be that supportive because it is cadent relative to fortune and the idle place (8th)):
Perhaps Saturn being angular relative to the lot helps bail out the period from obscurity. The election win however happened within hours (! - the Nov 6th date is in UTC format which would be several hours earlier on the east coast) of his loosing of the bond at the second level which activated his Moon/Jupiter in the 10th from fortune (and reminds us that a birth time about 4 minutes later is likely). Most interestingly, now that he is in a Capricorn general period which lasts 27 years, the focus of this general period is the encounter of the domicile lord Saturn in Leo. That happens Aug 27th, 2012 which is the same day that the Republican convention starts (!!!):
So after the Leo 2nd level is reached in August, the Virgo 3rd level takes up the times in mid-October. The focus of this period is when Virgo hands over the times to its domicile lord in Pisces (!) which is election day! Such close hits by date seem to indicate that fate is stronger than choice at certain times in our life. We may have the freedom to choose how we arrive at a given place and how we react, but some things may be beyond our will to change. This highlights the issue of what our identity is and the boundary to that identity; because if that boundary reaches to the planets then our will is that of the planets and no entity can avoid being itself just to claim free will!
As I said before, I don't think that selecting the candidate with the most favorable astrological influences is going to be a sure fire indication of whether such will win the office of president. Nevertheless, Romney is in what can be considered a fairly difficult period with his contrary to sect Mars casting an opposition ray into Virgo, so this is likely to be a very tense and nasty time for him. What is interesting is that the encounter of the exaltation/domicile lord Mercury which was retrograde in Romney's chart happens on election day. Not only that, but transiting Mercury also stations retrograde the same day! In Obama's chart we have this happening on election day:
In contrast to the encounter of significant turning points that happened in Obama's chart during his 2008 campaign, we notice a complete lack of turning points on expected dates such as the democratic convention and election day using this method. It is as if the date comes and passes without making a change in circumstances. There can be a number of reasons for this: he stays in office without any change; the election gets hung up and things are not decided as expected when they should be (as with the hanging chad fiasco in Florida); or it might indicate a loss due to lack of engagement (this one I think unlikely). October 5th is the encounter of the domicile lord (Mercury) in Leo but it doesn't fall on any obvious scheduled event (What I do find interesting is that the transits on election day are a "planetary picture" mirroring his birth date but squaring his natal positions for the most part). So if not this, is there a turning point on inauguration day for Obama? The inauguration happens under a Leo level 3 period which was very close to the same circumstances he was in at the start of his first term. His spirit releasing has fairly solid support on the 1st and 2nd levels (Cancer -> Capricorn) with Venus present in Cancer and a well dignified domicile lord and lot of exaltation in Capricorn. The further sub divisions of Gemini handing over to Aries suggest nail biting, but Valens suggests that when the general times are good and sub periods are problematic, that the native stands resolutely while being upset with disturbances.
If we look at what Romney might be doing on inauguration day, we see the following:
He hits the 10th from fortune period on level 3 with Cancer L4 which probably has the lot of exaltation present judging past success with Cancer periods such as his win for governor of Massachusetts. This looks more promising than what happens election day, but it might simply be a time when he gets a nice offer somewhere else. What we know is that he is in peak activity during this time, so one possible scenario might be that while Obama has spirt activating his 7th house Sun setting (being dignified in the 7th can indicate the success of opponents in any contest if activated by timelordship), symbolizing that he steps aside while Romney takes the oath of office. Personally I find this hard to believe, but it is one way the symbolism could potentially work out. (Obama spirit releasing at time of inauguration):
However Obama will be in his 10th from fortune period (L4) and highly visible during inauguration. This is not unexpected as he has to be there whether he wins or loses.
If we look to the method of profections, Obama will be in a 4th house profection year and according to Valens' method, the only active handing over is the Moon to Mars. This is not typically a good handing over as it is indicative of bloodshed and bodily weakness in a typical chart (eminent nativities are judged differently). From my more modern perspective, given that it has to do with the 4th house, I would tell a prospective client that he might be moving to a new residence during that time. Any move out of the white house would not be taken favorably by president Obama. A more radical reading would be the possibility of a terrorist attack on the white house given the symbolism, but this is only one of many possibilities. It could simply mean extensive remodeling of ones home as well which would make the home less than peacful and serene. Romney is in a 6th house profection year which means that the Sun, Mercury and Mars all hand over to Saturn. Four years from now Romney not only reaches his 10th house profection year, but he will have reached his 10th from fortune in 2016.
If Obama stays on for a 2nd term, what does inauguration day 2017 show?
Unlike the election of 2012, Obama's sprit releasing does encounter the domicile lord Jan 20, 2017, so we know unless something unprecedented occurs where term limits are abolished due to national security reasons, that he is likely to step down.
If the standard rules that winning the seat of president indicate favorable astrological conditions, then I would have to say that Obama has the edge. If a connection to specific dates through the releasing is an indication, then Romney might pull off an upset. As it is I cannot say for certain, but I think Obama will win a 2nd term; because as Watson and Brennan have said, the election date falls on a mirror of Romney's participation in his fathers loss against Barry Goldwater that repeats on election night; and because he has shown a propensity to be horrendously out of step with the zeitgeist of the times under such periods. So I would suspect that in the month before the election, Romney feeling pretty good says some things carelessly that he will later regret due to his Mercury retrograde in fall. However, as incomprehensible as it seems currently, I do think that this election is going to be a close one and there could be a Truman/Dewey style upset announcement that later gets reversed due to Mercury retrograde or some similar dispute over election irregularities. It is also hard to imagine Romney's profections this year (Sun, Mercury, Mars all handing over to Saturn) being supportive of becoming president. In any case, Romney has some very favorable things going for him in 2016, so if he was to win this election, it could indicate that he would stay for 2 terms. If not, we might see him win the next election if he decides to run.
I think I have shown just how tricky the analysis can be and how the symbolism can plausibly be interpreted either way. But a guide to knowing what is more likely is to keep an eye on what is expected to come with the transits of the outer planets. The underlying circumstances that led to the financial crisis of 2008 have not been resolved so I think we can expect unrest and civil disturbance for the next several years. If this is not resolved, this may culminate in civil war early in the next decade leading to a revolution and rewriting of the constitution around 2026. 
1. The Anthology, by Vettius Valens. Book II. pg 31. Translated by Robert Schmidt © 1994. Published by The Golden Hind Press.
2. See The Anthology, by Vettius Valens. Book IV. pg 6, first footnote. Translated by Robert Schmidt © 1996. Published by The Golden Hind Press. This is assuming that at such a young age one can have actions. Valens suggests that fortune divides the times until one reaches the age of reason, but in Obama's chart there is ambiguity as to which one is fortune and which is spirit.
3. Explanation of spirit handing over to fortune 10th is in The Anthology, by Vettius Valens. Book IV. pg 14. Translated by Robert Schmidt © 1996. Published by The Golden Hind Press.
4. Heliacal rising of Sirius found in The Anthology, by Vettius Valens. Book IV. pg 27. Translated by Robert Schmidt © 1996. Published by The Golden Hind Press.
5. Explanation of bodily actions in The Anthology, by Vettius Valens. Book IV. pg 5. Translated by Robert Schmidt © 1996. Published by The Golden Hind Press.
6. The Anthology, by Vettius Valens. Book III. pg 67. Translated by Robert Schmidt © 1994. Published by The Golden Hind Press. This is in section 11 on predomination, but the footnote explains that nowhere in Valens examples has he used this even though he says to do it. However there is ample evidence that Valens does not consider the finding of fortune and spirit to be a cut and dried matter; that there are exceptions. I think since the issue is brought up in the section on predomination, it is a matter of whether the Moon has enough power to force a nocturnal calculation and whether by doing so the lord of this does not fall amiss as Valens would say. Each nocturnal chart is likely to be different in this regard. This option exists in Delphic Oracle for when the Moon is below the horizon at night to use the diurnal formula for calculating fortune and spirit.
7. The Anthology, by Vettius Valens. Book IV. pg 4. Translated by Robert Schmidt © 1996. Published by The Golden Hind Press.
8. The Anthology, by Vettius Valens. Book IV. pg 14. Translated by Robert Schmidt © 1996. Published by The Golden Hind Press.
9. This is according to Robert Schmidt.
10. Robert Schmidt has translated the word for angles as "pivot" (the Greek being "kentron"). He says there are two senses of this word that are meant: one is that such a place is upon a center of activity upon which something revolves around; the other sense is that such a planet could be prodded into action (goaded as in a cattle prod). It is in this 2nd sense that Venus would be considered pivotal by being conjunct the MC.
11. I don't know the exact date for this because the Wikipedia article just states 1971. Presumably this was at graduation in May, but the important thing here is the loosing of the bond which covers the remaining times after March 1971.
12. This was predicted by John Hogue who has a pretty good track record.